FIONA BECOMES HURRICANE, REMAINS EASTERN FLORIDA

GETTING STRONGER… THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE PATH REMAINS…

Tropical Storm Fiona is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday. (National Hurricane Center).

BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com

UPDATE AT 5:00 PM

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2022 MetroDesk Media, LLC) – The National Hurricane Center says Tropical Storm Fiona is likely to become a hurricane by the middle of next week. The storm continues on its way to eastern Florida.

Here is the Friday afternoon update from the NHC:

Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 500 PM AST Friday September 16, 2022

Most of Fiona’s convective activity remains sheared east of the centre. However, there are some initial signs of new convection developing in a small ring around the center, the low level cloud field is thickening a bit and visible satellite images show high level convective cirrus blowing east to west . It remains to be seen whether this suggests some decrease in deep layer shear over the system and humidification of the ambient atmosphere. The initial intensity remains at 45 kt given the little change in Fiona’s organization since earlier today. The next Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission is scheduled for tonight.

Fiona’s center jumped a little north today, and is poised to move over or just north of Guadeloupe. The initial motion is estimated at 280 degrees at 13 knots, with the storm headed west by a subtropical ridge to the north. The runway forecast philosophy has not changed since earlier today.

Fiona is expected to reach the western edge of the ridge, slow and turn northwest on day 3, then north-northwest on day 5. Indications remain generally in good agreement on this scenario, with the notable exception of the ECMWF model. , which shows a smaller Fiona not turning as sharply or moving as fast as in the other models at the end of the forecast period. The new NHC track prediction is adjusted north for the first 48-60 hours of the forecast to account for the jump north of center, but otherwise falls back in line with this morning’s forecast on days 3-5 and is a little to the west of consensus aids.

Assuming recent satellite trends are a harbinger of possible strengthening, NHC intensity forecasts continue to show gradual intensification as Fiona moves across the far northeast Caribbean Sea over the next 48 hours. Although the Hispaniola terrain may cause some weakening over the 60 to 72 hour period, the magnitude of the weakening will likely depend on how much of the wind field moves over the island or remains above. over adjacent waters. After 72 hours, global models indicate circulation will recover over the extreme southwest Atlantic, and official forecasts continue to show Fiona becoming a hurricane by the end of the forecast period.

Key messages:

  1. Tropical storm conditions are beginning to spread over the Leeward Islands and will continue through Saturday morning.
    Tropical storm conditions will spread westward over the US and British Virgin Islands on Saturday and into Puerto Rico late Saturday and Saturday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible over Dominica this evening and in the Dominican Republic watch area on Sunday.
  2. Heavy rains from Fiona will reach the Leeward Islands by tonight, spreading to the British and US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, reaching the Dominican Republic on Sunday, and Haiti and the Turks and Caicos Islands Monday through Tuesday. This rainfall can produce significant flooding impacts, including flash and urban flooding, as well as mudslides in higher ground areas.
  3. Fiona is expected to gradually strengthen over the northeastern Caribbean Sea, and could be near hurricane strength as it approaches the southern or eastern coast of the Dominican Republic Sunday afternoon. Warnings may be needed for parts of the Dominican Republic tonight or Saturday.
  4. Fiona is expected to strengthen after passing through Hispaniola early next week, and interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas should continue to monitor forecasts for the storm.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 16.4N 61.1W 45KT 50MPH
12H 17/0600Z 16.8N 62.8W 50KT 60MPH
24H 17/1800Z 17.2N 64.9W 50KT 60MPH
36H 18/0600Z 17.6N 66.6W 55KT 65MPH
48H 18/1800Z 18.2N 68.2W 60KT 70MPH
60H 19/0600Z 18.8N 69.2W 55 KT 65 MPH… ON DOM. REPUBLIC
72H 19/1800Z 19.6N 70.2W 55 KT 65 MPH… ON DOM. REPUBLIC
96H 20/1800Z 21.6N 71.7W 60 KT 70 MPH… ON THE WATER
120H 21/1800Z 23.6N 72.2W 70KT 80MPH

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